Recently Worldsteel released this year of global steel short-term demand prospect, expected global steel consumption increase 3.1%, reached 1.475 billion tons, 2014 will increase 3.3 %, reaching 1.523 billion tons.
Hans Jurgen Kerkhoff, who is responsible for economic research in Worldsteel said, the main risk of the global economy is euro zone debt crisis and China’s economic hard landing problems, however, recently the recovery of crisis in good shape. Major emerging economies, especially India and Brazil, the performance is not satisfactory due to structural problem, these factors have led to the slow increase in global demand for steel. This year Chinese steel demand will increase 6.0%, rest of the world will increase only 0.7%, global steel demand will increase 3.1% this year.
Worldsteel expects, 2014 global steel demand will continue to show recovery trend, developed countries will grow, while China’s growth momentum will slow down.
Despite the developed countries getting away from the risk, developing countries of structural problems, political instability and volatility in financial markets is still uncertainty. Overall, the global economic situation in the steel industry remains unstable, however, we expect 2014 steel demand will grow further.
China: Following the 2012 steel consumption increased 2.9%, this year will increase 6.0% to reach 699.7 million tons, which is mainly benefited from government infrastructure stimulus. However, government limit investment, 2014 steel demand growth is expected to slow to 3.0%.
India: last year increased 2.6%, the consumption of steel is expected to increase 3.4% this year, reaching 74 million tons, India’s high inflation pressures and structural problems limit the steel sector activities. India government to expedite the implementation of structural reforms, steel demand is expected to increase 5.6% in 2014.
Japan: The economic situation has improved, government stimulus will boost steel demand growth of 0.1% in this year to reach 64 million tons. However, 2014 outlook is not optimistic, due to the presence of new consumption taxes, manufacturing outward migration and energy prices rising too fast of problems, steel demand is expected to drop 1.6 percent next year.
United States: Following last year’s increase of 7.8%, this year the steel consumption will increase only 0.7%, reaching 96.9 million tons. Benefited from the global economy to improve, automotive, energy and residential construction sector activity increased, steel demand will increase 3.0% in 2014.
EU: in particular the first half of this year, steel sector activity continued to contract, steel consumption this year is expected to drop 3.8%, reduced to 135 million tons. Italy and Spain were respectively reduced 8.1% and 4.3%, reduced 1.6% in Germany. 2014 outlook is hopefulness, but the EU overall steel demand remains poor, next year will increase only 2.1 percent, to 138 million tons.
Middle East and North Africa: Due to continued political unrest, this year steel demand slowed to 1.7%, reaching 64.3 million tons. In the effect of the re-start investment projects and government efforts to combat social unrest, steel demand is expected to increase 7.3% in 2014, reaching 69 million tons.